The Rundown: Tucker Decision Looming, Cubs Roster Projection, Internal Promotions in Baseball Ops

Things have grown understandably quiet for the Cubs lately, almost as though the front office is taking a few moments to rest up after adding Edward Cabrera and Alex Bregman in a four-day span. Think of it like taking an afternoon nap following a big Thanksgiving meal. Jed Hoyer’s heaviest lifting of late has been picking up the phone to answer repeated calls from Buster Posey about trading for Nico Hoerner. Craig Breslow and Brian Cashman may be blowing up Hoyer’s mobile as well, though it’ll take a big overpay to make something work.

The funny part about all this is that the very thing that makes people think Hoerner is more available — Bregman’s signing — is also what should make the Cubs more reluctant to move their second baseman. If we were talking about a team that was projected to win around 85 games and maybe compete for a Wild Card spot, moving a player with one year left on his deal might make sense. But now that they’ve added to major pieces, parting with Hoerner would badly hamstring their contention efforts.

You also have to consider that the only teams looking to acquire a rental player are also contenders, which means they’re not going to want to move players of their own who can help them win in 2025. The one exception people continue to note is that a team with a backlog of young starting pitchers might be willing to “overpay” for Hoerner by parting with a controllable arm. Boston’s Connelly Early and Payton Tolle keep coming up, especially since the Sox signed lefty Ranger Suárez.

Thing is, the Cubs would need to part with one of their current starters in order to accommodate either of those two. Not that anyone would necessarily object to replacing Jameson Taillon in the rotation, I’m just saying it’s another moving part, and one that likely wouldn’t interest Boston very much. In a vacuum, acquiring either young lefty would be a tremendous coup. But both still have full rookie eligibility, so there’s no way Breslow would trade either straight-up for Hoerner.

The Cubs would have to kick in a whole lot more, and many were already questioning whether they had the farm assets to land Cabrera. I can’t imagine Breslow being desperate enough to make another move that could backfire spectacularly in short order. Someone who just traded Rafael Devers to make room for Bregman and now has to watch both play for other teams won’t want to deal a potential ace for one year of Hoerner.

Even if the Cubs did get the kind of offer for Hoerner that they couldn’t refuse, trading him ahead of Cubs Convention would produce terrible optics. Not that it matters, because it’s so unlikely they’d ever get the kind of return they would need. And trading Hoerner this winter just because it’s better than letting him walk if they don’t work out an extension would be very, very dumb.

Tucker Decision Coming Soon

I wrote yesterday that a Kyle Tucker decision could come by the weekend, and that sentiment is being echoed across the baseball landscape. The Mets are reportedly willing to push as high as $50 million annually, and Mike Puma of the New York Post says they have a four-year offer on the table. Whether those two are combined is unknown, but I’d guess the higher AAV would be on a shorter deal. There could very well be opt-outs as a way to capitalize on the earlier years of the deal and avoid the potential for it to age badly.

More on that in just a moment, but the Blue Jays appear to be the only team willing to offer the kind of long-term security Tucker may be looking for. We had offered some informed speculation that they might be willing to go to seven years or more, and Jeff Passan told Sportsnet that Toronto might go as deep as 10 years. Such a duration would have a decidedly lower AAV than the Mets are offering, but the overall value would be much greater.

Given how well Scott Boras has done with turning one-year opt-outs into bigger long-term deals, Casey Close and his team at Excel Sports Management might want to take notes. Tucker could score a massive payday and hit the market again ahead of his age 30 season for what could be an even bigger deal…if he stays healthy and performs to his potential.

That isn’t something many teams are banking on, hence the dearth of teams willing to pursue the consensus top free agent on the market. As the winter has gone on, we’re hearing more questions about Tucker’s personality and his desire, or lack thereof, to do what it takes to keep playing at a high level. We’ve been hinting for months now about those concerns turning the Cubs off, and Joel Sherman openly questioned Tucker’s drive to stay on the field.

The latest entry comes from Chris Rose and Trevor Plouffe, who spoke about how they’ve heard Tucker “isn’t super in it for the long run” and that “Anthony Rendon Syndrome” may be hurting him. Some of that is undoubtedly unfair to Tucker, but there’s a point where even whispers become too loud to ignore. This could be more a matter of Tucker not really desiring the spotlight, which reminds me a little of Randy Johnson going to the Yankees. Maybe playing in Toronto would be best for him in that regard.

Whatever Tucker ends up choosing, it sounds more and more like his decision will come very soon. My prediction is that he goes to the Mets for the huge up-front payday and a chance to turn that into an even bigger contract after.

Cubs Roster Projection

I can’t argue with the roster projection Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney laid for The Athletic, especially since it’s surprisingly easy to pick who’s going where at this point. The biggest fly in the ointment will be spring training injuries, particularly with the pitching staff, though bullpens have enough inherent volatility that we could see some shifts there.

For that reason, I’m going to avoid wasting time on the rotation or the starting position players. Well, other than to say that Seiya Suzuki will be fine in right and there’s absolutely zero reason to think the Cubs need to go find another outfielder. Suzuki has made some boneheaded blunders out there, but having him in right frees up the DH spot for Moisés Ballesteros.

The bench should be set, with Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcántara, Miguel Amaya, and Tyler Austin providing a much younger and more exciting look than what we saw last season. While Hoyer could still bring in a veteran, it would likely be on a non-guaranteed deal that would only pay off if one of those four gets hurt early.

Back to the bullpen, where there’s really just one spot that’s in question as long as everyone is healthy. Colin Rea and Javier Assad are in; Daniel Palencia looks like the closer; Caleb Thielbar, Phil Maton, and Hoby Milner are solid veterans; Hunter Harvey provides some juice; and Jacob Webb is an underrated reliever who could benefit from a repertoire tweak. The wild card is righty Corbin Martin, who the Cubs signed to a minor league deal that had been in the works for a very long time.

The 30-year-old has yet to figure it out over parts of four seasons with three other teams, but his fastball ticked up to a career-high 96 mph last season and he’s giving off some Brad Keller vibes. Keller, as you recall, joined the Cubs as a non-roster invitee to spring training and ended up turning that into a roster spot and a multiyear deal with the Phillies. Whether it’s an injury to someone with a roster spot — Harvey has had trouble in the past — or simply outperforming someone, I could see Martin taking a spot.

And though it won’t matter right away, Justin Steele‘s return will force the Cubs to reconfigure things. Whether that’s another starter getting hurt or shifting to a six-man rotation with a bullpen member being demoted or DFA’d, they can cross that bridge when they come to it.

More News and Notes

• The Cubs have announced a series of internal baseball ops promotions, headlined by Garrett Chiado moving to assistant GM. He joins Ehsan Bokhari and Jared Banner.
• FanDuel Sports Network’s parent company, Main Street Sports Group, has made revised offers to three MLB teams as it seeks a buyer amid financial struggles. What a mess.
• Clayton Kershaw will play for Team USA in the WBC.

That’s all for today because Bregman’s presser is about to start.