The Rundown: Imai Fallout, Hoerner Trade Rumors Persist, Cubs Linked to Okamoto

The Tatsuya Imai news dominated MLB conversations on Thursday, in part because there was virtually nothing else to discuss. Cubs fans weren’t the only ones lamenting their team’s unwillingness to sign the Japanese righty for what amounted to peanuts relative to his initial contract projections, but it’s not always as simple as matching or beating a financial offer. That is particularly true for players coming over from NPB, as we’ve seen more than once in the past.

Everyone remains so focused on Shohei Ohtani‘s groundbreaking Dodgers deal that they forget how he first signed with the Angels under the restrictions of international free agency. The same was true for Rōki Sasaki, whose early departure subjected him to even stricter bonus constraints based on his timing in the IFA period. The Dodgers’ popularity in Japan certainly aided his decision, but that was obviously not the case for Imai.

Earlier in the winter, the righty told Japanese television that he wanted to “experience that survival vibe” of playing on a team that didn’t have other Japanese players. He also noted a desire to overcome cultural differences on his own terms, which would make Houston a more desirable location than LA or Chicago on more than one front. There is an interesting wrinkle in that Japanese manufacturer Daikin purchased naming rights to the Astros’ ballpark last year, though that could be nothing more than coincidence.

Whatever the case, it seems as though Houston presented a much stronger case to Imai than the Cubs or other teams could offer. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that Imai received offers for longer-term deals with lower average annual value and that the Cubs “seem to have been the most aggressive suitor after the Astros,” but that latter part conflicts with what CI has heard. The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reported that the Cubs wanted Imai “on their terms,” which tracks with their standard operating procedure.

While it’s hard to imagine that their terms would have been significantly lower than what the Astros offered, Jed Hoyer was surely not cool with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. Not with Jameson Taillon and Shōta Imanaga becoming free agents after 2026, plus Matthew Boyd having a mutual option that may very well not be exercised. Add that to the cultural aspects Imai prioritized, and the Cubs didn’t have much of a shot.

Setting aside any talk of whether and how the Cubs fumbled the bag here, which I don’t believe was the case, this deal was an even bigger miss by prognosticators than Imanaga’s two years ago. The Cubs got the lefty for about half of the nine-figure deal he was expected to command, but Imai came in around one-third of what some were thinking. Even the most conservative estimate from the very reputable Kiley McDaniel of ESPN put the deal at six years and $135 million.

It’s very clear that teams saw red flags in the way Imai’s stuff will translate to MLB, some of which could be in the metrics on his “wrong way” slider. That’s why the Cubs were not alone in straying from a deal that could have been voided after just one year. On one hand, orgs would want time to work on developing Imai into at least a mid-rotation starter. On the other, they wouldn’t want to lose him if the upper-90s velocity and strong pitch mix does indeed work out immediately.

I’m fascinated by this continuing trend of Scott Boras clients failing to get anything near what they’d expected in free agency, forcing them to pivot to prove-it deals with early options. Cubs fans saw that with Cody Bellinger, who rebuilt his value on a pillow deal in 2023 and came back after no one was willing to meet a reported $200 million asking price. Bellinger inked a three-year, $80 million contract that he surprisingly opted back into before being traded to the Yankees last year.

Carlos Correa famously bounced around for a number of different reasons before ending up in Minnesota on a deal that was about one-third of what he’d been seeking. Then he opted out and inked a six-year, $200 million contract that kept him with the Twins for two and a half more seasons before being traded back to the Astros. Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman likewise took shorter deals with higher AAVs before opting out, with the former landing what could end up being a bad deal for the Orioles and the latter continuing to seek a new team.

Boras has long set the market each winter due to his vast stable of top-end star players, but he’s getting a little long in the tooth and his tactics may be costing some of his clients a lot of money and security. At the same time, the Cubs and many other teams are nearly as wary of the shorter deals as they are of the monster contracts. With the looming work stoppage serving as an obvious inflection point, baseball’s financial structure is headed for some sort of course correction.

Whether that works in the Cubs’ favor or makes their conservative machinations obsolete is yet to be determined, but we’ve seen time and again that Hoyer is content to stick to his guns in negotiations.

Hoerner Keeps Drawing Trade Interest

Nico Hoerner‘s name has come up continually in trade talks, as evidenced by multiple different reports this winter. The only mention of interest from a specific team came when Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants had checked in on the second baseman, whose ability to play shortstop adds value. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney noted during the Winter Meetings that Hoerner’s name had “popped up” in conversations, and Jon Heyman said more recently that the Cubs were “fielding calls” on him.

Despite Hoerner’s expiring contract, moving him at this point doesn’t really make a lot of sense. A very strong case can be made that he’s the Cubs’ best all-around player, and extending him would likely cost a great deal less than signing, say, Bo Bichette. Heyman reported that the Cubs are among the teams circling Dante’s son, though that feels like gamesmanship.

Hoyer has made it clear that pitching is the priority this winter, but the Cubs need to improve their offense as well. Even if they feel they can replace Kyle Tucker‘s production internally, which I think is folly, filling the void left by trading Hoerner would really put them in the hole. So unless Hoyer’s got some serious tricks up his sleeve, a deal like this remains unlikely.

Okamoto Next to Sign

Kazuma Okamoto has to sign by Sunday afternoon, so we should hear about his decision either today or tomorrow. He may end up getting the most lucrative contract from among the trio of big Japanese players coming over via the posting system, largely because there are fewer question marks about his game. He’s also a more versatile defender than Munetaka Murakami, so he could serve in a utility role.

That said, the Cubs seem like an odd fit in a group that includes the Angels, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, and Red Sox. Anaheim just agreed to a restructured deal with Anthony Rendon and could be aggressive in looking to add both talent and hype. For the other teams, Okamoto feels like more of a Bregman pivot. Thing is, though, he’s got to sign by Sunday and Bregman has no such deadlines to worry about.

Boras represents both players, so it’s very possible he’s just trying to chum the waters. It’s not total BS since the Cubs have been linked to Okamoto for a while, but this latest mention is coming from Heyman, a noted Boras mouthpiece.

More News and Notes

• The Yankees have reportedly made an offer to Bellinger, again per Heyman.
• Per Feinsand, Japanese righty Kona Takahashi may return to Japan rather than accepting what might be a well-below-market deal in MLB.
• If the Cubs want to pivot to another free agent pitcher, the options include Zac Gallen, Ranger Suarez, Chris Bassit, Framber Valdez, and Lucas Giolito. They’ve already been connected to Gallen, yet another Boras client, but it seems like he might want an early opt-out in the hopes that he can rebound from a down season.
• That’s really all I’ve got at this point.

College Football Craziness

I know this isn’t what you’re here for, but the College Football Playoff has been wild. My Indiana Hoosiers just became the first and only team to win after getting a first-round bye in the tournament, though we’re only talking about two years. Still, the top four seeds going 1-7 and looking awful early in their games is pretty telling. IU was off for nearly four full weeks and took two sacks in their first three plays before going on to embarrass an Alabama team that didn’t deserve to be there in the first place.

The Ole Miss/Georgia game was a classic, though we missed most of it in favor of the Stranger Things finale. Pretty decent evening for groups of scrappy kids from Indiana, huh?

Here’s to hoping we get a little more movement soon, both for the Cubs and across baseball in general. I think Hoyer will make at least one splash ahead of CubsCon, so we should get a little excitement here in the next two weeks.