Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/9/25): Busch Leads Off, Tucker Still Not Ready, Horton Starting

The Cubs have now lost three straight and four of five, with a combined total of six runs in those losses. They have seen three games shaved off their lead for the top Wild Card spot in that stretch, and their playoff odds have even dropped two-tenths of a point to 99.6% as of this writing. Part of the problem is that they’ve been playing down a man that whole time as they wait for Kyle Tucker‘s calf to get right.

Update: After a week of hemming and hawing, the Cubs finally made the decision to place Tucker on the IL retroactive to September 6. You know, after he had already missed two games. What a freaking waste.

Craig Counsell said the outfielder was available for Monday night’s game, yet Willi Castro and his .164 average with a 27 wRC+ in 77 plate appearances with the Cubs was out there for the final at-bat. We might be able to debate whether having Owen Caissie on the bench would have made a difference against the Nationals or Braves, but there’s no doubt that Tucker’s absence has played a role in the offensive anemia.

It doesn’t help that one of their bench players is 39-year-old Carlos Santana, who has yet to reach base in a Cubs uniform. We’re only talking 10 PAs so far, but the switch-hitting slugger was already mired in one of the worst seasons of his career before the Cubs signed him. Even though the players need to be better, it’s easy to see why fans might feel as though team leadership isn’t doing enough to make the most of these games.

That includes placing a strict pitch limit on ace Cade Horton, a move I actually agree with based on his health history and overall lack of competitive innings in the past. Still, it’s tough when you have a rookie getting pulled while tossing a no-no and the Cubs can’t win because they don’t score enough runs. His latest stellar effort came against these same Braves, lowering his second-half ERA to 0.77 over nine starts.

I’ve broken more than a few percussion mallets already beating this massive drum, but I’ll take another swing by saying the Cubs need to provide more run support to their starters. Wasting quality starts time after time is frustrating as hell.

Michael Busch remains in the leadoff spot at first base, Ian Happ is in left, and Seiya Suzuki is the DH. Pete Crow-Armstrong returns to center field, Nico Hoerner is at second, and Carson Kelly does the catching. Castro is playing right as Tucker is out of the starting lineup for the sixth game in a row despite his supposed availability yesterday. Dansby Swanson is at short and Matt Shaw plays third.

They’re facing Spencer Strider, who picked up a no-decision eight days ago after going five innings with three earned runs and just one strikeout. That’s the first time in his MLB career that he’s struck out less than two batters in a start, though he’s still finding his bearings after missing most of last season due to undergoing an internal brace procedure to repair his injured UCL. He also missed a month with a hamstring strain, and he’s seen a significant drop in his fastball velocity.

Going from 97-98 mph in his two full seasons as a starter to 95-96 gives him decidedly less margin for error. He’s also throwing the fastball less, down to around 53% after averaging over 60% in those first two seasons, though he was just over 59% against the Cubs. His slider is at roughly 36%, more than ever before, and he’s also got a curveball that makes up nearly 7% of his offerings. There’s also an infrequent changeup that he uses to keep left-handed hitters honest.

Strider has one of the bigger velocity disparities between his fastball and secondaries, with the 86 mph changeup sitting about 10 ticks lower. The tight slider comes in at 84 mph and the curve, which can run into the other breaking ball shape-wise, is at 80 mph. Everything plays up a bit due to Strider’s 7-foot extension, but that extension was the same length when he was throwing harder.

As an aside, I’ve been having some interesting conversations lately about extension as it pertains to player evaluation. Some teams won’t touch a pitcher in the draft if he’s under a certain number, even if all other results say he could be great. It’s all about projection, which Strider had in spades prior to his injury. He may be able to get back to his strong performance if the velo ticks back up, but that probably won’t happen until at least next season.

Strider has also been hampered by command issues in the zone. Though he gets lots of chase and whiffs, he can run up deep counts and may be forced to battle back with hittable pitches. The Cubs forced him to make 88 throws in five innings, and they eventually wore him down as his outing went along. Having spotty command with lower velo puts Strider among the worst pitchers in the league when it comes to barrel rate and average exit velocity

After previously pitching to standard results in the past, Strider’s splits are almost identical this season. He has been much worse at home, however, with lefties dominating him to the tune of a .308/.385/.577 slash with seven homers at Truist Park. That bodes well for Happ, who homered and singled against Strider last week. Perhaps some other Cubs hitters can get in on the action tonight.

First pitch is at 6:15pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.