Cubs 2018 ZiPS Projections Pt 2: Lofty Projections for Starters, Bullpen Looks Elite

ZiPS loves the Cubs’ core of position players, but the computers are confident in the 2016 World Series champ’s pitchers, too.

There’s been concern about the starting rotation going into next year, or at least that’s what my Twitter timeline tells me. Yet the projections are led by Jose Quintana (4.5 WAR), Jon Lester (3.5), and Kyle Hendricks (3.2). A very good top of the rotation, indeed, and supported by an even better bullpen, consisting of six pitchers with ERA- projections of 82 or lower.

Let’s start with the starters, namely Quintana, who ZiPS believes will keep doing his thing. The Colombian lefty is projected for a 3.13 ERA, which would be the best of his career, and 3.19 FIP that’s significantly lower than his career average. Hey, Q’s career sort of looks like Andy Pettitte’s. ZiPS agrees.

Theo Epstein has actually compared Pettitte to another Cubs lefty, and I don’t mean Mike Montgomery. Lester is expected to post a 3.54 ERA and 3.69 FIP (nice), both of which are very similar to what Hendricks (3.48 ERA, 3.78 FIP) is in line for. Oh, and those player comps are real doozies for these two. Lester is linked to Hall of Famer (I repeat, Hall of Famer) Tom Glavine, while Hendricks receives a comp of Tim Hudson. Wow.

Let’s dial down the sensational tone for a second and talk about two disappointing projections: Tyler Chatwood and Montgomery. Chatwood’s Colorado numbers are undoubtedly influencing his ZiPS projections, as he’s looking at a 4.24 ERA/4.34 FIP in 143 innings. Then again that FIP is actually right around league average in today’s launchpad environment, and the Cubs did pay him to essentially pitch just like his ZiPS projections. Still, I and many wouldn’t be surprised to see Chatwood surpass those predictions.

Montgomery isn’t projected favorably either, coming in at a 4.11 ERA/4.43 FIP in 116 innings, which would be a huge downgrade from the 3.38 ERA he put up last year in 130.2 innings. ZiPS thinks Monty’s 0.61 HR/9 last year was unsustainable and believes it will shoot back up to around 1.0 per game next year.

Imagine for a second that Jake Arrieta does come back to the Cubs. ZiPS actually doesn’t think too highly of the Cubs legend, despite Scott Boras’s asking price suggesting he’s an ace. Arrieta’s predicted FIP is relatively low at 3.94 and his 3.67 ERA is slightly better. It’s not as if these predictions are unfathomable, since the former(?) Cub had a 3.53 ERA and 4.16 FIP last season. But if the Cubs are paying $25 million a year for the next four seasons for these numbers, maybe the risk is just too much.

Arrieta or no, the Cubs might not yet be done adding to their starting staff, so things could change here in the near future. They’re probably done constructing their bullpen, though, and wow, these relief projections are lovely…

Six Cubs relievers have ERA- projections under 82: Justin Wilson (70), Brandon Morrow (72), Carl Edwards Jr (72), Pedro Strop (76), Steve Cishek (76), and Brian Duensing (81). Even Dillon Maples’ ERA- is projected to be an encouraging 94.

But can we talk about Wilson for a moment? After all, ZiPS thinks he’s the best Cubs reliever among a sturdy crew. My boss and the man who deals with editing my terrific posts, Evan Altman, discussed Wilson’s potential rebound in great detail recently. It is a must read and will get me bonus points if you click on the link. The Cubs Insider EIC went as far to say that if Wilson can be the man ZiPS projects him to be, this Cubs bullpen has a good chance at being the best in baseball. He’s not wrong!

What I also find intriguing about the bullpen projections is that Edwards is pegged for an excruciatingly high 5.7 BB/9, even though the computer still thinks he can have a 3.12 ERA in spite of so many walks. That’s probably because ZiPS also forecasts that he will strike out almost 14 batters per nine innings — a K/9 that would be among the best in all of baseball.

Morrow, the presumed closer, isn’t being penalized for his gap years and down seasons, coming in hot with a solid 3.14 ERA in 51.2 innings. Very similar numbers to Edwards, actually. Then there’s Strop and Cishek setting the table for the aforementioned relievers with 3.33 ERA marks of their own.

What this is all suggesting is that the Cubs could have the best bullpen not just in the division or the league, but in MLB overall. Cool. And the top three Cubs starters are being compared to some of the better pitchers in the last generation. Super cool.

You can check out the full tables below and read more commentary on the complete projections on FanGraph’s page here.

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jose Quintana L 29 30 30 186.0 188 51 16 166 71 66
Jon Lester L 34 29 29 170.3 169 48 21 156 72 67
Kyle Hendricks R 28 27 27 155.0 136 39 18 146 64 60
Jake Arrieta R 32 29 29 161.7 158 56 20 143 71 66
Tyler Chatwood R 28 30 25 143.0 115 66 15 133 72 67
John Lackey R 39 26 25 146.0 129 44 26 144 77 72
Mike Montgomery L 28 38 15 116.0 96 51 13 107 57 53
Alec Mills R 26 20 18 88.7 70 25 10 93 43 40
Carl Edwards Jr. R 26 67 0 60.0 92 38 5 38 22 21
Justin Wilson L 30 64 0 56.0 78 30 4 40 20 19
Brandon Morrow R 33 53 0 51.7 54 17 4 46 19 18
Pedro Strop R 33 63 0 54.0 64 23 5 42 21 20
Drew Smyly L 29 21 20 113.0 106 37 22 113 63 59
Steve Cishek R 32 57 0 51.3 56 21 5 43 20 19
Rob Zastryzny L 26 25 15 94.0 78 38 12 98 49 46
Williams Perez R 27 23 22 113.7 85 50 13 118 63 59
Brian Duensing L 35 57 0 53.3 48 17 5 50 22 21
Dillon Maples R 26 59 0 65.7 94 56 5 50 31 29
Anthony Bass R 30 27 12 82.7 71 36 11 84 46 43
Koji Uehara R 43 42 0 37.0 45 10 6 33 16 15
Daury Torrez R 25 45 1 70.7 49 19 9 77 35 33
James Pugliese R 25 41 7 77.0 54 40 7 81 42 39
Trevor Clifton R 23 22 22 102.0 82 51 14 109 60 56
Dario Alvarez L 29 43 0 47.0 63 25 7 40 22 21
Cory Mazzoni R 28 30 0 40.3 44 10 5 39 18 17
Zach Hedges R 25 24 24 135.0 65 43 19 162 81 76
Dan Camarena L 25 23 22 113.0 73 37 20 128 68 64
Jen-Ho Tseng R 23 25 24 132.3 97 43 24 150 80 75
Justin Grimm R 29 62 0 61.7 72 31 9 54 31 29
Kyle Ryan L 26 62 0 60.3 42 34 4 59 31 29
Matt Carasiti R 26 52 0 55.3 63 29 8 51 29 27
Craig Brooks R 25 45 0 56.3 68 48 5 47 30 28
Eddie Butler R 27 23 21 111.3 65 47 16 126 68 64
Brad Markey R 26 34 9 86.7 59 27 15 99 51 48
Adbert Alzolay R 23 22 22 103.3 77 43 18 115 64 60
Manny Parra L 35 35 0 26.7 22 12 3 27 14 13
Duane Underwood R 23 24 23 118.0 78 58 17 132 74 69
Randy Rosario L 24 33 5 71.7 48 37 9 78 43 40
Oscar de la Cruz R 23 14 13 55.0 43 20 11 62 34 32
Justin Hancock R 27 47 0 53.7 44 31 6 54 30 28
Tom Hatch R 23 26 26 117.7 97 65 17 128 75 70
Scott Carroll R 33 21 14 84.0 45 37 14 98 56 52
David Rollins L 28 34 3 46.3 36 22 9 52 31 29
Alberto Baldonado L 25 50 0 56.3 58 36 10 56 35 33
Ross Detwiler L 32 30 11 76.7 55 39 13 87 51 48
Matt Swarmer R 24 23 11 90.0 73 33 21 104 61 57
David Garner R 25 38 0 46.3 47 34 9 48 33 31
Jake Stinnett R 26 18 15 79.0 65 45 17 89 57 53
Luke Farrell R 27 28 19 109.0 75 56 22 127 79 74
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jose Quintana 186.0 775 24.3% 6.6% .292 3.19 3.13 73 72
Jon Lester 170.3 715 23.6% 6.7% .286 3.54 3.69 81 85
Kyle Hendricks 155.0 650 20.9% 6.0% .284 3.48 3.74 80 86
Jake Arrieta 161.7 684 23.1% 8.2% .278 3.67 3.94 84 91
Tyler Chatwood 142.3 626 18.4% 10.5% .277 4.24 4.34 97 100
John Lackey 146.0 626 20.6% 7.0% .282 4.44 4.75 102 109
Mike Montgomery 116.0 506 19.0% 10.1% .278 4.11 4.43 94 102
Alec Mills 88.7 384 18.2% 6.5% .303 4.06 4.03 93 92
Carl Edwards Jr. 60.0 256 35.9% 14.8% .277 3.15 3.12 72 72
Justin Wilson 56.0 238 32.8% 12.6% .290 3.05 2.91 70 67
Brandon Morrow 51.7 218 24.8% 7.8% .298 3.14 3.12 72 72
Pedro Strop 54.0 227 28.2% 10.1% .282 3.33 3.38 76 78
Drew Smyly 113.0 489 21.7% 7.6% .282 4.70 4.79 108 110
Steve Cishek 51.3 218 25.7% 9.6% .284 3.33 3.47 76 80
Rob Zastryzny 94.0 418 18.7% 9.1% .302 4.40 4.53 101 104
Williams Perez 113.7 509 16.7% 9.8% .296 4.67 4.57 107 105
Brian Duensing 53.3 227 21.1% 7.5% .290 3.54 3.53 81 81
Dillon Maples 65.7 303 31.0% 18.5% .313 3.97 4.03 91 92
Anthony Bass 82.7 368 19.3% 9.8% .297 4.68 4.55 107 104
Koji Uehara 37.0 154 29.2% 6.5% .293 3.65 3.56 84 82
Daury Torrez 70.7 308 15.9% 6.2% .300 4.20 4.32 96 99
James Pugliese 77.0 352 15.3% 11.4% .301 4.56 4.65 105 107
Trevor Clifton 102.0 466 17.6% 10.9% .304 4.94 5.01 113 115
Dario Alvarez 47.0 206 30.6% 12.1% .306 4.02 4.14 92 95
Cory Mazzoni 40.3 170 25.9% 5.9% .312 3.79 3.48 87 80
Zach Hedges 135.0 610 10.7% 7.0% .301 5.07 5.14 116 118
Dan Camarena 113.0 504 14.5% 7.3% .293 5.10 5.31 117 122
Jen-Ho Tseng 132.3 590 16.4% 7.3% .301 5.10 5.16 117 118
Justin Grimm 61.7 270 26.7% 11.5% .288 4.23 4.28 97 98
Kyle Ryan 60.3 274 15.3% 12.4% .288 4.33 4.27 99 98
Matt Carasiti 55.3 246 25.6% 11.8% .301 4.39 4.44 101 102
Craig Brooks 56.3 264 25.8% 18.2% .302 4.47 4.56 103 105
Eddie Butler 111.3 507 12.8% 9.3% .294 5.17 5.21 119 120
Brad Markey 86.7 386 15.3% 7.0% .300 4.98 5.12 114 118
Adbert Alzolay 103.3 468 16.5% 9.2% .299 5.23 5.35 120 123
Manny Parra 26.7 119 18.5% 10.1% .296 4.39 4.32 101 99
Duane Underwood 118.0 544 14.3% 10.7% .299 5.26 5.34 121 123
Randy Rosario 71.7 330 14.5% 11.2% .297 5.02 5.17 115 119
Oscar de la Cruz 55.0 247 17.4% 8.1% .300 5.24 5.45 120 125
Justin Hancock 53.7 246 17.9% 12.6% .296 4.70 4.76 108 109
Tom Hatch 117.7 546 17.8% 11.9% .308 5.35 5.20 123 119
Scott Carroll 84.0 387 11.6% 9.6% .295 5.57 5.75 128 132
David Rollins 46.3 213 16.9% 10.3% .299 5.63 5.55 129 128
Alberto Baldonado 56.3 261 22.2% 13.8% .299 5.27 5.43 121 125
Ross Detwiler 76.7 356 15.4% 11.0% .303 5.63 5.61 129 129
Matt Swarmer 90.0 407 17.9% 8.1% .303 5.70 5.87 131 135
David Garner 46.3 221 21.3% 15.4% .305 6.02 6.05 138 139
Jake Stinnett 79.0 371 17.5% 12.1% .301 6.04 6.21 139 143
Luke Farrell 109.0 510 14.7% 11.0% .299 6.11 6.11 140 140
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Quintana 186.0 9.10 2.47 0.77 136 4.9 Andy Pettitte
Jon Lester 170.3 8.93 2.54 1.11 123 3.5 Tom Glavine
Kyle Hendricks 155.0 7.90 2.26 1.05 123 3.2 Tim Hudson
Jake Arrieta 161.7 8.80 3.12 1.11 117 3.0 Dave Stieb
Tyler Chatwood 142.3 7.27 4.17 0.95 101 1.7 Paul Foytack
John Lackey 146.0 7.95 2.71 1.60 98 1.6 Bob Forsch
Mike Montgomery 116.0 7.45 3.96 1.01 106 1.5 Lou Brissie
Alec Mills 88.7 7.11 2.54 1.02 107 1.3 John Hope
Carl Edwards Jr. 60.0 13.80 5.70 0.75 136 1.2 Armando Benitez
Justin Wilson 56.0 12.54 4.82 0.64 140 1.2 Will Ohman
Brandon Morrow 51.7 9.41 2.96 0.70 138 1.1 Chad Bradford
Pedro Strop 54.0 10.67 3.83 0.83 129 1.0 Turk Wendell
Drew Smyly 113.0 8.44 2.95 1.75 92 0.9 Curt Young
Steve Cishek 51.3 9.82 3.68 0.88 129 0.9 Turk Wendell
Rob Zastryzny 94.0 7.47 3.64 1.15 97 0.9 Scott Sauerbeck
Williams Perez 113.7 6.73 3.96 1.03 92 0.8 Steve Arlin
Brian Duensing 53.3 8.10 2.87 0.84 123 0.7 Tony Castillo
Dillon Maples 65.7 12.88 7.68 0.69 109 0.6 Duane Ward
Anthony Bass 82.7 7.73 3.92 1.20 93 0.6 Mike Heathcott
Koji Uehara 37.0 10.95 2.43 1.46 119 0.5 Russ Springer
Daury Torrez 70.7 6.24 2.42 1.15 102 0.5 Donnie Moore
James Pugliese 77.0 6.31 4.68 0.82 94 0.5 Walt Masterson
Trevor Clifton 102.0 7.24 4.50 1.24 87 0.5 Ed Wojna
Dario Alvarez 47.0 12.06 4.79 1.34 107 0.4 Tim Fortugno
Cory Mazzoni 40.3 9.82 2.23 1.12 113 0.4 Brandon Lyon
Zach Hedges 135.0 4.33 2.87 1.27 85 0.4 Michael Macdonald
Dan Camarena 113.0 5.81 2.95 1.59 85 0.4 Eric Knott
Jen-Ho Tseng 132.3 6.60 2.92 1.63 84 0.4 Sergio Mitre
Justin Grimm 61.7 10.51 4.52 1.31 101 0.4 Todd Wellemeyer
Kyle Ryan 60.3 6.27 5.07 0.60 100 0.3 Mike Cosgrove
Matt Carasiti 55.3 10.25 4.72 1.30 98 0.2 Roy Corcoran
Craig Brooks 56.3 10.86 7.67 0.80 97 0.2 Clay Bryant
Eddie Butler 111.3 5.25 3.80 1.29 83 0.2 Kevin Hodges
Brad Markey 86.7 6.13 2.80 1.56 86 0.2 Brad Rigby
Adbert Alzolay 103.3 6.71 3.75 1.57 82 0.1 Jake Joseph
Manny Parra 26.7 7.43 4.05 1.01 98 0.1 Darold Knowles
Duane Underwood 118.0 5.95 4.42 1.30 81 0.1 Jake Dittler
Randy Rosario 71.7 6.03 4.65 1.13 86 0.1 Scott Rice
Oscar de la Cruz 55.0 7.04 3.27 1.80 82 0.1 Daniel Haigwood
Justin Hancock 53.7 7.38 5.20 1.01 91 0.0 Horacio Pina
Tom Hatch 117.7 7.42 4.97 1.30 80 0.0 Jake Joseph
Scott Carroll 84.0 4.82 3.96 1.50 78 -0.2 Sid Hudson
David Rollins 46.3 6.99 4.27 1.75 77 -0.3 Danny Young
Alberto Baldonado 56.3 9.27 5.75 1.60 81 -0.3 Carlos Cabassa
Ross Detwiler 76.7 6.46 4.58 1.53 76 -0.4 Hal Elliott
Matt Swarmer 90.0 7.30 3.30 2.10 75 -0.4 Ken Ryan
David Garner 46.3 9.13 6.60 1.75 71 -0.6 Adalberto Mendez
Jake Stinnett 79.0 7.41 5.13 1.94 71 -0.7 Mark Woodyard
Luke Farrell 109.0 6.19 4.62 1.82 71 -1.0 Mike Windham
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