AP Photo/Morry Gash

Imanaga’s Increased Velocity Promising Sign for Upcoming Season

Photo of Jacob Zanolla Jacob ZanollaFebruary 25, 2026

One of the biggest question marks on the Cubs’ 2026 roster is Shōta Imanaga, who is entering his third MLB season. After finishing fourth in Rookie of the Year voting after his excellent 2024 campaign, Imanaga had a rough sophomore season. His 3.73 ERA was more than a full point lower than his 4.86 FIP, indicating that Imanaga may have had some luck on his side throughout the year. His 4.6% walk rate was among the best in baseball, but he gave up a staggering 31 home runs in just 144.2 innings.

That was a direct indication that his fastball, which he threw around half the time, didn’t have the same effectiveness as before. Imanaga’s fastball was his calling card when he came over from Japan, as he was able to generate more ride than average from a low release point, making it tough for hitters to adjust. During his electric 2024 campaign, Imanaga’s fastball averaged just under 92 mph and served as an effective setup for his secondaries.

In 2025, however, the velocity was down a tick to under 92 mph and he generated less right with slightly more arm-side movement. That decreased deception sent opponents’ slugging skyrocketing to .567, a jump of nearly 100 points. When his most frequent pitch wasn’t effective, he obviously wasn’t as effective. The southpaw missed almost two months during the middle of the season with a hamstring injury, and there’s been plenty of talk about how that may have impacted him once he returned.

In eight games before the injury, Imanaga had a 2.82 ERA and 1.41 home runs allowed per nine innings. After returning to the team in late June, that ERA jumped to 4.14 and he allowed an unacceptable 2.16 HR/9. That bled into two postseason starts, in which he allowed three home runs and six earned runs across 6.2 innings before being skipped late in the series against the Brewers.

Though it’s just one abbreviated start early in spring training, and one that wasn’t broadcast by either team, Imanaga’s performance gave plenty of reason for optimism. Not because he tossed two scoreless innings with one strikeout and no walks against the Padres, but because his fastball velocity was up by almost three miles per hour with higher induced vertical break.

Whether it was really the hamstring or some other mechanical issues that Imanaga was able to work through at Cressey Sports Performance in the offseason, having him on point at this juncture is a very good sign of things to come. These metrics will be worth monitoring during Imanaga’s next start, which we can hope will be carried by Marquee, and throughout the rest of the spring. He isn’t participating in the WBC either, so the Cubs can continue to ramp him up at a standard pace.

Photo of Jacob Zanolla Jacob ZanollaFebruary 25, 2026
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