The Rundown: Tigers More Willing to Invest in Valdez Than Skubal, Red Sox Sign IKF, Cubs Add More Minors Deals

Baseball’s arbitration process can be incredibly contentious, especially when teams and star players can’t agree on a salary for the coming season. It effectively creates a situation in which an organization has to explain to a neutral panel why a given player is actually not worth the money he’s asking for. Those circumstances created animosity between the Brewers and Corbin Burnes three years ago, and things aren’t looking good for the Tigers and Tarik Skubal.

The reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner filed at a record $32 million, while his team countered with $19 million. That’s the largest gap in arbitration history, and Skubal winning would beat Juan Soto‘s $31 million with the Yankees in 2024 as the highest ever. As wild as it sounds that the Tigers could possibly poke holes in Skubal’s performance, which has made him one of the best two pitchers on the planet right now, they may not have to try very hard to win their case.

First, the process itself works in their favor. The arb panel must choose one number or the other rather than assigning a “fair figure,” so the burden lies more with Team Skubal to prove their $32 million filing is better. And while that is easily a valid salary in today’s climate for a god-tier southpaw who continues to get better and won’t turn 30 until November, the huge jump from 2025 works against him.

Consider that Soto earned $17.1 million from the Nationals in 2022, then got $23 million from the Padres the following season. Those 35% bumps represent significant raises, but they don’t compare to Skubal asking for three times as much as he earned last season ($10.15M). Again, I’m not saying he’s not worth it in a vacuum. The issue comes down to precedent, for which there is none in this case.

Not only is a 200% raise unheard-of, but no panel has awarded as much as $20 million in a hearing. Soto’s salary was settled without having to go in front of a tribunal, so the largest award in a player’s favor was $19.9 million for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2024. That was a relatively modest bump of — you guessed it — 35% over his 2023 earnings.

Skubal’s arbitration hearing took place on Wednesday in Scottsdale, and a decision from the panel of Jeanne Charles, Walt De Treux, and Allen Ponak is expected to come on Thursday. Per the AP, both Charles and De Treux were on the panel that determined Guerrero’s salary two years ago. It’s also interesting to note that the Tigers avoided arbitration with lefty David Price on a $19.75 million salary in 2015, yet they’re trying to pay Skubal less money more than a decade later.

I could very well be proven wrong in very short order, but the Tigers’ big move on Wednesday evening leads me to believe they’ve won their case against their (former?) ace.

Valdez to Detroit

It was looking like the Orioles were leading the way in the race for lefty Framber Valdez, but the Tigers swooped in with a three-year, $115 million deal that features an opt-out after the second year. It also has a $20 million signing bonus and an as-yet-unknown amount of deferred money, but we’ll go with the $38 million average annual value for now because it’s twice what they’re trying to pay Skubal.

I wasn’t very high on Valdez to begin with, and that’s without even considering the way he crossed up his catcher to peg him with a fastball, so my first inclination is to believe this deal will age very poorly. In addition to my concerns about how Valdez will perform, it now seems assured that Skubal will be gone by next offseason at the latest. After waffling on it, I am now thinking that trade talks for the AL’s best pitcher will intensify regardless of the arbitration result.

Having to pay two pitchers a combined $70 million might not fit ownership’s budget preferences, while getting the ace at $19 million makes him that much more valuable to other teams. The fact that they were willing to juice Valdez’s AAV to such an extent is what makes me think they won their case against Skubal, which gives them far more flexibility moving forward. Saving $13 million could make the Tigers more willing to hold onto him for a possible playoff push in a weak division.

Overall, it’s an odd situation that I’m trying to wrap my head around. I mean, why not just throw the bank at Skubal in the first place? I won’t be surprised if he opens the season in Detroit, but I’m willing to put good money on him finishing 2026 in a different uniform.

IKF to Boston

In their search for infield help, the Red Sox have reportedly agreed to a one-year, $6 million deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa. He is expected to play second base, with second-year man Marcelo Mayer handling the hot corner. While this doesn’t necessarily preclude additional moves, it would seem to pour a little cold water on the idea of Boston angling for a big trade.

Then again, counting on the light-hitting IKF as the solution to what was a position of weakness last season might not be a great idea for Craig Breslow. Kiner-Falefa has never posted a wRC+ higher than 93, and his career average of 82 means he’s been 18% worse than the average offensive producer over parts of eight seasons. His defense is solid and he won a Gold Glove at third for the Rangers in the shortened 2020 season, but his value is based more on versatility at this point.

He should be a very good defensive second baseman, though he’s also about to turn 31 and isn’t on the type of deal that guarantees him a spot. This strikes me as a move to set the floor and provide Boston with competence, whether it’s a full-time keystone man or a utility infielder who can play all over if they find an upgrade. In short, he’s the opposite of Matt Shaw.

Though I don’t believe a deal is likely, Shaw continues to make a lot of sense for a team seeking a cheap young player with strong potential both in the field and at the plate. That’s going to cost a lot more than $6 million in value, and Jed Hoyer knows it.

More News and Notes

• The Cubs have signed infielder Owen Miller and righty Vince Velasquez to minor league deals.
• The 33-year-old Velasquez hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2023 due to Tommy John recovery, though he did toss 35 innings for the KBO’s Lotte Giants last season. He figures to slot into Iowa’s rotation as he attempts to get another crack at the bigs.
• Miller, who turned 29 in November, has spent a little time with the Guardians, Brewers, and Rockies over parts of the last five seasons. He’s not flashed much in the way of power or defense, but there’s nothing wrong with depth.
• The Pirates have signed former White Sox pitcher and long-time asshole Mike Clevinger to a minor league deal. When he wasn’t busy battling domestic abuse charges brought by the mother of one of his children, the now-35-year-old struggled to stay on the mound and keep his ERA in check.
• Miguel Andujar, who looked like a good fit for the Cubs, has signed a one-year deal with the Padres that will guarantee him $4 million.

Trailer Time

I believe I’ve mentioned my affinity for Lee Child’s Jack Reacher books, and also for the Prime series they have spawned, so it should be no surprise that the trailer for War Machine caught my attention. The Netflix original stars Alan Ritchson, who appears to be playing a character very similar to that of his titular role in Reacher. From what I’ve seen, the only difference is that Ritchson doesn’t have to cover his growing tattoo collection in the movie.

This looks like a movie that knows exactly what it is, not unlike so many other action flicks of the 80s and 90s. I’m thinking Predator, Universal Soldier, etc. Just take one of the biggest action stars of the day and throw him against impossible odds with lots of explosions and SFX. The one knock I can see is that this also reminds me a lot of corny-as-hell 2005 military sci-fi action film Stealth.

Starring Jamie Foxx, Jessica Biel, and Josh Lucas, the box office bomb earned only $79.3 million against a $135 million budget. I remember being very nonplussed by the concept two decades ago, and never ended up seeing the whole thing. I will, however, be checking out War Machine when it drops on March 6.