If Cubs Want To Get Better, Rotation Must Get Younger

Historically, and certainly since Craig Counsell made the trip down I-90 from Milwaukee, the Cubs have been a pitching-first ballclub. If you closely examine their best teams in recent memory, hurlers like Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Zambrano, Kyle Hendricks, and even newcomers like Cade Horton mark a pedigree of lockdown starting pitching. The Cubs’ 3.81 team ERA ranked ninth in MLB, and their starters were eighth in all of baseball with a 3.83 mark.

Even with the early loss of Justin Steele, a rotation led by Horton, Matthew Boyd, Shōta Imanaga, and even Colin Rea ensured that the Cubs kept winning even when the offense went cold for stretches. It helped that they were backed by sparkling defense, especially Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and the Gold Glove-caliber middle infield of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson. It’s more than reasonable to say that the front office will lean into that combination of pitching and defense this offseason.

If the Cubs are to compete for bigger prizes outside of their division, however, they need to foster a youth movement in the rotation. Inserting a healthy Horton back into this staff gives the Cubs a starter with an impressive arsenal of lethal pitches and the kind of potential we haven’t seen on the North Side since Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. But beyond the 24-year-old Horton, all of the other projected starters currently on the roster are at least 32 years of age. Once he can return from elbow surgery, the 30-year-old Steele will actually bring down the average age.

The organization’s top pitching prospect, righty Jaxon Wiggins, will inject an electric jolt of energy into the pitching staff, but he will likely need more seasoning. With a velocity of up to 100 mph, Wiggins’ fastball is his most lauded pitch, though he also features an impressive array of offspeed stuff. In 78 innings across three levels of the farm system this past season, he allowed only 19 earned runs with 97 strikeouts. He isn’t projected to make his MLB debut until 2026, though, so Jed Hoyer needs to find a way to get younger and more dynamic in the meantime.

Fall Out Boy was right when they said, “This ain’t a scene, it’s a goddamn arms race,” and the Cubs could find themselves bringing knives to a gunfight once again if their development pipeline continues to produce mere trickles. The club cannot get by with older pitchers like Boyd, Rea, and Imanaga for much longer. Teams like the Dodgers keep getting their Hollywood endings, not only because they have an absurd glut of generational talent, but also because they have enviable youth, meaning that talent could potentially stick around.

So, how can these two young talents be utilized proficiently for the Cubs? Since Steele will not be ready at the outset of the season, Horton becomes the ace of the staff, while either Imanaga or Boyd moves to the two spot in the rotation. How the Cubs add from the outside to strengthen the rotation is a picture that’s recently started to come more into clearer focus. Per recent reports, it’s unlikely that Michael King or Joe Ryan will be in the squad’s iconic blue pinstripes anytime soon.

I’m personally not comfortable with any of the trade scenarios various outlets have suggested, as they include critical pieces like Nico Hoerner. Matt Shaw, another candidate, is divisive in terms of his ceiling, but it’s too early to say how far he can go or what his value is on the trade market. The most obvious target at this point appears to be 27-year-old Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai, whose decision will directly inform how the Cubs go about improving the rotation behind Horton.

Put succinctly, the Cubs need to continue building around the talent they’ve got in-house by acquiring younger, more dynamic arms that can start games. Though it’s not been Hoyer’s M.O. in the past, having multiple starters with overpowering fastballs and corner-painting offspeed offerings will give this team more of an edge when it comes to playing October baseball. And the further away those pitchers are from the age of 30, in the right direction, the more Octobers they’ve got left.

Around this time each year, I start to pine for the warmer months and the return of Cubs baseball. Their 2025 campaign excited, inspired, and left us wanting more. But is there more out there to be had? Of course there is, and it starts with who this club puts on the mound.