Shōta Imanaga Brings New Look to Lefty-Heavy Cubs Rotation
With the imminent signing of Shōta Imanaga — barring any snags in Thursday’s physical — the Cubs will add another lefty to a projected rotation that already features Justin Steele and Jordan Wicks. They could even have another southpaw making regular starts if they choose to stretch things out by having Drew Smyly swing in from time to time. That would make sense considering how Imanaga is used to going every six days and Kyle Hendricks could probably use extra rest on occasion.
What interests me most at this point is how the Cubs will utilize that primary trio of lefties, especially since looking at superficial data alone might lead someone to believe they’re similar. That couldn’t be further from the truth once you dig into their respective repertoires, though it’s understandable that there could be some concern about having three dudes who all sit around 92 mph with their fastballs.
We already know about Justin Steele’s deceptive two-pitch mix of a cut-ride fastball and nasty slider, and we got a good look at Jordan Wicks’ fastball/change combo during his time with the big club. Both have room to tweak their ancillary offerings, perhaps with Steele finally figuring out his offspeed stuff and Wicks really dialing in one of his breaking balls, but the 30-year-old Imanaga is already there.
As monster pitching nerd Eno Sarris described masterfully in The Athletic, the newest Cub boasts “three plus pitches by shape and velocity” between his fastball, slider, and splitter. The fastball is unique in that, based on Statcast data collected during the WBC, it had more ride than any other four-seam thrown in MLB last season. What’s more, Sarris noted that Imanga’s release point of around 5.5 feet is 10 inches lower than the average of the top 10 fastballs in terms of ride.
Add in over 8 inches of arm-side run and you’ve got a nasty heater that screws hitters up because it doesn’t act like they think it should. I mean, we’re talking about a pitch that starts lower and ends up higher than the average fastball, and with more run to boot.
Here’s Imanaga’s 4seam vs. MLB average. Look at the lower starting point of his pitch, then look at the trajectory of it. See how it has some “oomph” to it?
⚫️MLB AVG
? Imanaga pic.twitter.com/o8AskteVpr— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) January 10, 2024
With big movement on his sweeper and depth on his splitter, Imanaga has two more pitches that allowed him to put up big strikeout numbers in Japan. His 29.5% strikeout rate dwarfed a 3.7% walk rate that would have been lower than all but two qualified MLB pitchers last season, so he’s not afraid to work in the zone. That might not necessarily be a good thing, however, as Imanaga gave up a lot of homers in a league that features less slug than the one he’s joining.
He may be able to combat that by adjusting to work up in the zone more frequently, a task that isn’t as easy as it sounds given his aforementioned release point. Tommy Hottovy and the rest of the Cubs’ pitching gurus are no doubt salivating at the idea of getting Imanaga into the pitch lab to see what he can do, and I’d suspect they’re targeting something other than the four-seam when it comes to tinkering.
Such proactive adjustments aren’t always for the best, as we saw with Jameson Taillon‘s addition of a sweeper almost immediately after signing with the Cubs last winter. But Imanaga’s curve and cutter don’t grade out very well and might be due for a refresh under the guidance of fresh instructors who have different philosophical and mechanical ideas. It may be a matter of changing the shapes of two or more pitches or just altering the way he sequences them, perhaps both.
Oh, you know how I said I was most interested in how the Cubs will deploy their southpaws? I lied. The real intrigue for me lies in how Imanaga’s contract is structured since initial reports have it varying wildly from projections. With a “complicated” deal carrying a reported guarantee of two years and $30 million that can rise to 4/$60 million with the potential for an $80 million max, the Cubs appear to have gotten a bargain.
If accurate, the base is pretty easy to figure out. I’m guessing there’s some sort of vesting clause — probably starts or innings pitched — that triggers a player option for an additional two years at the same AAV. Maybe it’s a club or mutual option if those thresholds aren’t met. Then there could be another club option for a fifth year at $20 million, or it’s at the same $15 million base and there are performance bonuses that could earn Imanaga another $5 million over the life of the deal.
It looks very much like Jed Hoyer’s patience paid off in this case, now he’s just got to go out and sign or trade for two or three more players to install his team as legit division favorites.
Update: Early figures were off just a bit when it comes to the contract, which Jesse Rogers reported is four $53 million over four years ($13.25M AAV). The complicated part comes in the way of team options to extend the deal to $80 million over 5 years ($16M AAV), which the Cubs can do after the second or third years. If they decline, Imanaga can opt out and become a free agent.
The Cubs will also pay the Yokohama BayStars around $9.8 million in posting fees, though that number will go up if the option is exercised.
