Cubs Reach Tentative Agreement with Lefty Shōta Imanaga, Physical on Thursday
Even though we just ran a piece about how the Cubs looked like favorites to sign Shōta Imanaga, it makes sense to dedicate a separate one to the deal actually happening. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the news, reporting that Imanaga will undergo a physical in Chicago on Thursday in order to make it official. That would put him in town for Cubs Convention, where he’ll surely receive a rousing ovation as the team’s only free agent signing of the offseason so far.
Jed Hoyer waited patiently until just two days before Imanaga’s posting window closed, and now we wait to see whether and how the waiting game paid off. MLB Trade Rumors had Imanaga at No. 10 on their top 50 free agents list and projected a deal of five years and $85 million, but subsequent reports had him landing something in the low nine-figure range.
We’ll have more details on this deal as they are available.
Update: Jon Morosi reports that the deal is for multiple years with the AAV in the $15 million range. Assuming it’s no longer than six years, with five seeming most likely, the deal could end up coming in well below predictions. If the Cubs get Imanaga for 5/$75M or even 4/$60M, I’ll be both surprised and impressed.
The surprising part isn’t just that the Cubs were able to get great relative value, it’s that other teams weren’t willing or able to match the offer. Maybe Hoyer simply did that good a job with his presentation. This could mean the Cubs replaced Marcus Stroman at a much lower annual salary and no antisemitism.
Update #2: Eno Sarris loves Imanaga’s fastball, which “would immediately have the most ride in baseball if his WBC numbers hold up.” In addition to that ride, the lefty generates about eight inches of arm-side run on the four-seam he throws about 54% of the time. That shape allows him to get swings and misses despite throwing it in the zone at nearly an 80% clip.
Lance Brozdowski has a full breakdown of Imanaga’s pitch shapes for any huge nerds out there, so be sure to check that out for some really granular info. Working down in the zone with the fastball got Imanaga into trouble in NPB, and he’ll give up a lot of homers if he maintains that strategy moving forward. Working up in the zone may be easier said than done due to his low release point, but he should be able to adjust.
Even though he’ll sit low 90s, the heater plays up because of the ride. See the graphic below from former Cubs Insider staffer Brendan Miller to get a better understanding of how Imanaga is able to fool hitters.
Here’s Imanaga’s 4seam vs. MLB average. Look at the lower starting point of his pitch, then look at the trajectory of it. See how it has some “oomph” to it?
⚫️MLB AVG
🔴 Imanaga pic.twitter.com/o8AskteVpr— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) January 10, 2024
I’m sure the Cubs already know what they’d like to do with Imanaga’s repertoire to help him carry his success over to MLB, whether it’s tweaking the shape of his sweeper or just altering his sequencing. This will be a big topic in spring training and we may even hear more about it this weekend, so be on the lookout for that info.
Update #3: Jim Bowden reports that the base deal is for just two years and $30 million with a series of options and escalators that could push it to $60 million over four years or a max of around $80 million over what I assume is either five or six years.
Update #4: The Cubs have officially announced the deal, though they did not disclose its terms. After a few stabs at its structure, see above, the actual guarantee is for $53 million over four years ($13.25M AAV) with a club option to increase it to five years and $80 million ($16M AAV). That option can be exercised after either the second or third season, and Imanaga can choose to opt out or stay with the original deal if the Cubs don’t pick it up. So it’s possible he’s only in Chicago for two years, though the Cubs will surely extend to a fifth year if he’s pitching well enough to make hitting the market a viable decision.
